One of the most troubling of all in the recent wave is the defection to the All Progressives Congress (APC) is that there is no significant ideological motivation for these political switches. Rather than having some principled, policy-driven beliefs, or value-based differences, too many of the politicians are crossing over purely for personal gain, political survival, or proximity to power.
This ideological void threatens the internal cohesion of the APC, because the party now a magnet for opposing and contradictory interests is likely to become a field of ego and ambition. Such competition from within the party may ultimately destabilize the ruling party and even lead to fragmentation as original members and renegade members struggle for control.
Ironically, the APC itself was born as a coalition of opposition parties, a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) designed to dislodge the long-dominant Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). In 2015, it successfully dislodged the PDP by presenting itself as a corrective force against corruption and complacency. But today, the APC has turned into the very thing it once decried transformation from a reformist coalition into a nexus of political opportunism and patronage.
This is a trend that is repeated across the history of Nigeria’s politics, where parties rise and fall not on the basis of ideological position or policy sophistication, but on the ability to capture defectors and stabilize bases of power. This recent stampede into the APC, without a shared vision or compelling principle, enhances the possibility of divisiveness, intra-party strife, and eventual dissolution.
Recent flag-bearer defections indicate so. All but a few have followed periods of political or legal vulnerability. The governor of Delta State’s case, for example, followed an investigation by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) into state coffers and the arrest of his protégé, Ifeanyi Okowa. The Cross River, Enugu, and National Assembly defectors also serve to illustrate how political realignment is most often driven by expediency and not faith. These changes reinforce a system under which access to resources and power takes precedence over ideology further deepening political elites while disenfranchising common people.
Nigeria’s democracy stands at a crossroads. Absent ideological clarity-enhancing reforms, party inner-party democracy, and principled leadership, the political process itself risks becoming a revolving door of opportunists in pursuit of relevance. Absence of real opposition not only undermines democratic accountability but further entrenches cynicism among citizens who increasingly view politics as a zero-sum game of spoils.
Even more disturbing are growing concerns that President Bola Tinubu’s political strategy is placing Nigeria on a de facto path to one-party rule. The perception that the president is systematically wielding power has become increasingly plausible, but there has been uncomfortable silence about the danger this poses. One hopes merely that he is not borrowing from the playbook of Cameroon’s Paul Biya, who has spent three decades and counting at the helm, strangling democracy and paralyzing national development.
To a nation as large and diverse as Nigeria, the drift towards a one-party state has grave implications for national unity, democratic wellness, and social stability. A method that silences the voices of opposition contradicts the spirit of democracy robust competition, accountability, and fair representation of contending interests. When opposition is stifled, policy discussions become mere formality, and unopposed dominance encourages corruption, impunity, and dictatorship.
President Tinubu’s relentless pursuit of political consolidation, unfazed by the warning signs of creeping authoritarianism, is gravely challenging Nigeria’s democratic future. If this trend continues, Nigeria stands the chance of becoming a polity where diversity is smothered rather than recognized, and where power is held by a select few.
It would not only discredit the success of democratic governance but also jeopardize the fragile social solidarity that exists around Nigeria’s many ethnic, religious, and regional identities. In order to secure the future of the country as a democracy, political leaders must reaffirm the pluralism, transparency, and rule of law values that are the hallmark of genuinely representative democracy.
